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    Terps NCAA Seeding: A Scenario Analysis

    I’ve been following the self-named “Bracketologists” over the last few weeks and I’ve been pleased to see Maryland steadily moving up their pairings.  However, the best guys in the business at Bracketology 101, had this to say about Maryland’s prospects:

    The win moved the Terps into a tie with the Blue Devils atop the ACC standings at 12-3, and seed-wise, it will move them to the top of the 5 line in our bracket on Friday. The Terps would be even higher than that if they had more of an OOC resume, but they can still crack the 4 line if they make the ACC final.

    Really?  We’re a consensus #5 seed if the season ended today (See Lunardi’s rankings) and the if Terps continue their winning ways all the way until the ACC Final (3 more wins); they will rise to only a #4 seed?  I find that hard to believe.

    The NCAA Selection Committee always rides the hot hand and this year should be no exception.  All of the Terps “bad losses” came in 2009.  I get that we don’t have a signature out-of-conference win; but that only matters when your conference record sucks.

    Here’s how I see it and I’m fairly certain this is how our seeding will play out:

    1. Lose to UVa and lose in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament: #7 seed (5% chance of happening)

    2. Beat UVa and lose in the Quarterfinals:  #5 seed  (25% chance of happening)

    3. Lose to UVa and lose in the Semifinals:  #5 seed (5% chance of happening)

    4. Beat UVa and lose in the Semifinals: #4 seed (20% chance of happening)

    5. Lose to UVa and lose in the Finals: #4 seed (5% chance of happening)

    6. Beat UVa and lose in the Finals: #3 seed (25% chance of happening)

    7. Lose to UVa and win ACC Title: #3 seed (5% chance of happening)

    8. Beat UVa and win the ACC Title: #2 seed (10% chance of happening)

    When the Terps won the ACC Title in 2004; they went from a bubble team needing to beat Wake in the Quarterfinals to get a bid, to a #4 seed in the NCAAs after we beat Duke.  You can’t tell me that a similar run now, would only move the Terps to a #4 seed?

    I’m by no means a professional, but I’m right, right?

    Author: Jeremy |March 4th, 2010 | Tags: , , | 90 comments

    • DiamondbackRuss
      I really want to see our guys clamp down on UVa in the 2nd half. Hold them to less than 70 points...maybe even less than 65
    • Rob
      We're going to blow these guys out by 20. Nice to not have a nail biter for a change.
    • Ricksterps
      I was reading about Moses and saw that Daddy Echebo is interested in UMD too. I SO want a guy named Daddy playing for Maryland. Please make that happen.

      Who's your Daddy?!?!?!
    • DiamondbackRuss
      Four-star power forward Moses Ayegba, aka Moses Abraham, visited UMD for the Duke game and his plan was to make a decision on 3/14. Ayegba recently visited Tennessee for the game against UK and was very impressed. There’s been chatter about Ayegba visiting Indiana, Seton Hall and possibly Florida before deciding but he got sick after the UMD visit and canceled the visits. Don’t know if he’ll push back his decision timetable or not. Still kind of raw on the offensive end of the court Ayegba is an athletic 6-foot-9, 230 pounds big-man with an enormous wing-span and ample upside. At the very least he looks capable of making an immediate impact as a rebounder and a shot-blocker based on his athleticism. That would make him a great compliment to Jordan Williams and James Padgett’s skill set. Georgetown is considered the leader due to a DC Assault-Curtis Malone-Nike connection but you never know.
    • idkwid
      absolutely good, we need a big guy who can contribute 5 to 10 minutes a game next year, with good defensive, rebounding and blocking skills, while he develops his complete game as a potential upperclassman starter.
    • DiamondbackRuss
      I wouldn't get your hopes up too high. I personally think Ayegba is on the DC Assault bus to Georgetwon but we'll see.
    • GERRY
      oooops where's spell checker when you need it.


      GV is one (1) of six (6) finalists for the "Bob Cousy Award" as posted on terp website.
    • GERRY
      GV on of 5 finalists for the "Cousy Award".
    • sam
      does anyone know if there is an archive of Gary William's radio show. i always miss them cuz of work, but would love to listen to the one from yesterday.
    • DiamondbackRuss
      HOLY CRAP! Loooks like DBR is going to get to watch the UMD game on TV. It's gonna be on the ABC affiliate here in North Central Florida.
    • johnnyrhodesscholar
    • DiamondbackRuss
      "AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH"

      Love it. Thanks for linking to tha
    • Ricksterps
      The biggest difference between this team and the last two years is shooting. Supposedly this kid can shoot and he has length. The way the game is played now, you have to have perimeter scoring. If this kid can just provide that off the bench it would be great.

      Besides, we can only start five guys. That means the majority of the guys we recruit will be role players or practice guys. 13 total 'ships 8 are bench and 5 are starters. It's just math.
    • Wheels
      Here are some reasons why Palsson might turn out differently than JS(K)C, who I loved like the adopted Korean son I never had (to borrow a phrase from The Soup's resident poet laureat, Kaze).

      First, Iceland isn't South Korea. They fluently speak like 18 languages in Iceland, and most Icelanders speak English better than most Americans. So Palsson won't have that barrier to overcome like Jin. Maybe Palsson will be the Icelandic version of Sarunas Headofcabbages. I mean, Gary's playing UN Roulette here. He scored with Lithuania, missed with South Korea...he's due with Iceland.

      Second, Icelanders are a tough bunch. They eat man's food there. Lots of sheep. Lots of reindeer. Salt cod. Even rancid shark (I saw this show on Travel Channel about it). Whereas Jin couldn't put weight on to save his life, Palsson's nordic diet pretty much means he'll eat anything. He won't get pushed around.

      Third, Icelandair flies direct from BWI to Reykjavik, and it's like a 2 hour flight. In the winter, which last for 16 months in Iceland, you can get really cheap flights. So Palsson's family can get to and fro pretty easily to see him.

      Fourth, the Norse gods will surely look over Palsson. Thor and Odin, like the primo Norse gods of all time, will turn Comcast into Valhalla. The students at MD will wear red in honor of Erik the Red, the great Viking explorer. AND since Gary is playing UN Roulette here, put it all on red.

      Of course, the kid could suck. I wouldn't mind having a zone buster, though. Would you?
    • idkwid
      LOL!!!
      A good shooter should have ice water in his veins, so, it's a start!
    • DiamondbackRuss
      I thought Valhalla was a golf course :)
    • Wheels
      Geez...Americans....don't take enough mythology...

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valhalla
    • Mike
      "I mean, Gary's playing UN Roulette here. He scored with Lithuania, missed with South Korea..."

      Gary didn't do too bad with Venezuela.
    • idkwid
      right now i have a guest visiting from Lithuania, she has met Sarunas, she says he is the most famous person in Lithuania
    • I'm going to patent Terp Viking horns in case this kid becomes an all-american
    • Wheels
      bbbbppppoooooooooooo.........bbbbppppoooooooooo....
    • aroc
      I have viewed the Duke game highlights on the Terps webpage 20 times since wednesday, and it is still good for another look!

      http://www.umterps.com/sports/m-baskbl/md-m-baskbl-body.html
    • DiamondbackRuss
      Ashton Pankey is off crutches or as he put it he's now "a free man". His rehab starts today and he's expected to make a full recovery.
    • johnnyrhodesscholar
      The Hawk sounds like a great fit for the Program. I've never hidden my love of Sean Mosley and if we have the Icelandic version too than all the better. And correct me if I'm wrong but we still have room to offer another 2010 ship, but we may not for the sake of balance correct? Obviously if some stud wants to sign, you throw balance out the window.
    • idkwid
      we get to have 13
      we have returners:
      Williams
      Padgett
      Goins
      Gregory
      Mosely
      Tucker
      Bowie
      Pearman
      and new guys
      PAnkey
      Palsson
      Howard
      Stoglin
      PArker
      that makes 13, we are full unless GW pulls Pearman's provisional o0ne year 'ship or Goins transfers
    • nmprisons
      The idea that Goins is coming back is just silly. When was the last time anyone on this board saw him? In MD? At Comcast? (please correct me if I am wrong, bu tI would just be shocked).

      And, to be fair, Pearman is a walk-on, not a scholarship kid so it wouldn't be a "pull" just a restoration of the rightful order of things.
    • DiamondbackRuss
      Things will become clear by th end of next month.
    • turtlepin67
      Balance is great, but with the NBA, transfers, injury, and academics as variables, there are no guarantees how long anybody will stay with the program. I agree that you don't give desperation scholarships, but there is nothing wrong with bringing in quality players when they are available.
    • DiamondbackRuss
      Balto Sun's Matt Bracken talked to Palsson's coach http://bit.ly/99Rui3
    • DiamondbackRuss
      Terps women lose by 2. Wonder if they'll get in the NCAA's. Young team, lots of promise for next year and several AAs coming in class of 2010.
    • DiamondbackRuss
      Terp ladies goin at Duke in ACCT. Under 2 mins to play and it's a 3 point game.
    • DiamondbackRuss
      Last night on his radio show, Gary Williams said that next year James Padgett could be a starter. Said Padge needs to work on getting a little quicker and stronger. Gary indicated that he's aware of his image as a yeller but he said that people don't see practices when he's "teaching" or other times when he's joking with kids.

      That's a good point. I watched Gary teach the flex offense to a Div II team and he's a totally different guy with the players in that type of situation vs game time
    • pc_1
      Back in the day when Gary first got to UM basically all the practices were open at Cole. I would hang between classes and watch a couple times a week. He wouldn't yell much at all, certainly no more than you would expect any coach. The only guy I remember who routinely got berated was Kevin Chamberlain. He was a leftover from Bob Wade with a ton of athletic ability but little fundamentals, not Gary's kinda of guy.
    • BaduEarlStar
      During my junior and senior years most of my classes were in the Benjamin building, and I too loved to head across the street to watch practices. I was learning to be a teacher, and I found it very interesting to watch a man who was obviously very good at doing just that.
    • jonbruns
      He's from Iceland. He's got to be money.
    • ChuckWoolery


      Is he a SG or SF? See him listed as both? Or does he have the versatility to play both...
    • DiamondbackRuss
      He's played both positions at the HS level not sure what his position will be at UMD. I'm just glad to finally get a Montverde HS player. That program has TALENT and hopefully this opens the door. Some of Montverde's players have been Soloman Alabi at FSU, Gary Clark and L.D. Williams at Wake Forest. The leading scorer on this year's Montverde team is going to 'Nova and another starter is going to BC.

      I believe Montverde will be playing in the ESPN RISE NHSI at Coppin State University April 1-3.
    • aw1723
      DBR- am i wrong to be somewhat unenthused about this kid? does gary see him as a practice player?

      i've never read anything about being a 'late bloomer' or anything about upside. looks like he is what he is - a hardworker with a good shot.

      i support whoever comes in, but JSC/JSK had a bigger rep than Hawk.
    • DiamondbackRuss
      But what are you gonna do when Hawk-a-mania runs over you!?!

      I'm sorry couldn't resist. Gotta run POS
    • DiamondbackRuss
      I think so, but I've never seen the kid play & I'm going off of reports Gary saw him and loved him. Gary thinks he's perfect for the Flex offense. I don't think he'd burn a 'ship on a practice player that's 6-foot 5. Maybe if he was 6-foot 10 or taller he might, I dunno.

      Part of the reason Hawk has flown under the radar is that he's only been in the Montverde program for one season. He's played behind guys that were in their 3rd year there, yet he still managed to average 10ppg and 5rpg.

      Another reason is that Palsson wasn't playing AAU ball, he was playing for the Iceland Jr. National team.

      Also, he took his SAT's late and you can't take OVs until you've taken the SAT. And with Montverde's schedule taking visits during the season was difficult to do.
    • turtlepin67
      I watched him on TV a few weeks ago. Physically, he's quite solid for a 17 year old. Also, he moved his feet well in their full court zone press. You could tell he was comfortable on the court. I only saw him take one shot(a miss).

      I agree with you. This is not like taking a flier on a raw, big man. Gary saw someone that can play within a system, and doesn't need the ball to be effective. It never hurts to have a backup to your glue man.
    • ChuckWoolery
      What's the book on Palsson? Is he an immediate contributor? What sort of game does he have - strengths/weaknesses?
    • DiamondbackRuss
      He's a guy that Gary REALLY wanted. Gary almost never takes recruiting trips during the season but he visited Montverde HS in Florida and watched Palsson at practice and loved his skill set and his work ethic. I'm told that the Flex offense is perfect for Palsson. He's been listed as 6-foot 6 but I know someone that saw him Wednesday and said he's 6-foot 5 at best. His strengths are shooting. Currently he's shooting 40% beyond the arc and 50% inside the arc.

      The book on "The Hawk", as he's known, is: has a good handle, passes well, will hit the boards, and is a good defender, has a high BB IQ.

      Not an impact player but the more I hear about him the more I think of Sean Mosley in that he's a player that won't do a bunch of highlight reel stuff but at the end of the game you think "man I love the way this kid plays".
    • Ricksterps
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6KG2p05MEM

      If this is him, he has a sweet stroke...
    • DiamondbackRuss
      Gary Williams says freshman Jordan Williams has aided Terps' flex offense. "It's the threat of being able to throw it in there."
    • Jacob
      [You guys can get as angry at me as you like for saying this, but....] DBR, thats also what she said.
    • idkwid
      he also helps the flex with great picks, he knows tha angles to set in, sometimes on offense i just key on watching him
    • aholla3
      insidemdsports.com is reporting that 2010 shooting guard Haukur Palsson has committed to Maryland.
    • DiamondbackRuss
      That probably will close out the 2010 class.
    • idkwid
      three guards, one small forward and one power forward, i was hoping for some more height and muscle. But, I am still very happy
    • James
      Personally i would rather have a 4 seed than a 6 seed. Think about it. Whats the difference between losing in the sweet sixteen to a 1 seed and losing in the elite eight to a 1 seed? An extra game for vasquez to break juan dixon's record? Maryland will have to beat a team like kentucky, syracuse, ksu eventually so why not do it earlier than later?
    • DiamondbackRuss
      No path to the sweet 16 is easy. A few years ago many of us, myself included, felt we were a lock for the sweet 16 since our first game was against Davidson and our 2nd round game was against Butler. Well, we know how that worked out.
    • DiamondbackRuss
      I found some video of the Terps post game workouts

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq0SmDoU2Bc
    • aw1723
      hey dbr - hate to be *that* guy but i posted this prior to the duke game.
    • DiamondbackRuss
      No worries my man.
    • I'm old and stupid and this is all WAY too confusing for me. I'll just wait to see what happens . . .
    • DiamondbackRuss
      I'm with woddyhinkle...sort of...just win as many games as possible and let the seedings fall where they may.
    • jonbruns
      I agree. Just start knocking down the acheivements. First off, Reg season champs. Gotta beat UVa. Then, go for the Conference championship. there has been a bit of talk about whether a loss in the ACC Tourney would in fact be good (a la 2002). But I've said for a while, I want banner(s) for this team and losing in the Conference Tournament doesn't guarantee a huge NCAA run. So we should try to win whatever is in front of us.
    • Mike_13254
      Woody Paige said we should be a 1 seed yesterday on around the horn
    • DiamondbackRuss
      He often says absurd things in an effort to be entertaining.
    • Mike_13254
      Yea i just thought it was funny
    • aw1723
      nope.. jeremy's dead on. if we are the ACC reg season co champs + the acc tourney champs - we will undoubtedly be a 2 seed, no matter what anyone else does. late season performance counts more then anything. jeremy citing the 2004 team is the prime example. bubble team >>> tourney champs >>>> 4 seed

      all that said.. we got a lot of winning to do.
    • idkwid
      that means we have to be one of eight teams, in with the likes of Syracuse, Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, West Virginia, Purdue, Villanova, Michigan State, Kansas State, Ohio State, New Mexico, OOPS, that is 13 teams, including us!!!!
      ten of those teams, including us have seven losses, ten of them already have fewer losses than we do.
    • eddienj
      That would mean we will have won 10 games in a row heading into the NCAA's. Have we ever won 10 games in a row before other than early non-conference? I think you would have to go back pretty damn far to find that. That would be pretty neat.
    • terps450
      During the national championship season, the Terps had a 13 game win streak sandwiched between the loss at Duke on Jan 17 and the loss to NC State during the tourney.
    • aw1723
      exactly.. imagine a 10 game winning streak, co-acc reg season champs, conf tourney champs 26-7 overall 13-3 in the ACC.. someone please show me how that is anything less than a 2.
    • eddienj
      Agree with you guys that #3 is the ceiling. But a #2 or #3 is pretty much the same thing so it doesn't matter that much. Unless we can get a #3, I wouldn't mind that we slide down to #6 rather than #4/#5. I think there are three teams that stand out above the rest (Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky) and I'd rather avoid them until the Elite Eight. :-)

      Always a danger at UVA on Saturday. I'm not too worried about it though. Normally it would be a tough game after Dook. Luckily we have a championship on the line and that will provide plenty of motivation.
    • Ricksterps
      I'm with Wheels. I think they will limit us because of our out of conference.

      Personally, I don't think it really matters that much from here on out. We are between a 3-6. The way they seed them now the talent isn't that much different. Obviously, the first round game a 3 would be easier but from then on out it would all be about luck of the draw match-ups. I saw that 5-12 UCONN game....yikes. Might as well be a 8-9 game.

      Isn't it nice to be talking about where we will be in the tournament and not IF we will be in the tournament?
    • Wheels
      Here's my take. I think a #3 is the ceiling due to the OOC. At that level, all of the teams have good conference records, so the next criterion is OOC wins. But here's the thing: I don't think MD would want a 4 or 5 seed. You run into the #1 seed earlier, and you get stuck in the upset prone slots. UConn as a 12?! I hate how the committee is now putting big conference teams in slots that used to be reserved for upstart mid-majors. They should have a rule saying that no major conference team should be lower than the 10 spot. Personally, I think the 3 or 6 slots are more advantageous seedings to make a longer run. If MD makes the ACC final, I think they nab a 4. If they win, I think they nab a 3...and Dook stays at 2 (assuming they don't lose to UNC or early in the ACCs). Yeah, yeah, but MD would have beaten them twice...but Dook has really good OOC wins that you can't discount coming off of presumably a 13-3 conference record. But this is all way too premature. MD hasn't won in CVille since 2006, so I hope they have their sights set on BooVa.
    • idkwid
      I think we will be a 3 with a win out
      and a 4 with beating Va, and losing the final of the ACC
      5 with beating Va and losing the second game of the ACC

    • terpbugman
      Wheels is right. #2 is completely unrealistic, and I don't see any scenario --- even if MD wins out before the Big Dance --- that MD gets a #2. #3 is a possibility, but more likely a #4 or #5. #3 or #6 is the best scenario --- preferably #3, but the next best is #6, because MD would have to get to the Elite 8 before playing a #1. I like MD's chances with most of the potential 2 and 3 seeds --- I've seen some of them on TV and MD is playing better than them right now. But MD doesn't want to meet a KY or Syracuse too quickly in the Dance.
    • talaya7
      BTW #2 - It seems to me that there isn't much of a difference between getting a #3 vs. a #2. The two seeds are interchangeable in regards to the quality of teams you play and where you play. There's a big difference, however, between a #4 and a #3. There a small difference between a 4 and a 5.

      Getting to a 3 would be a nice sweet spot to lauch an assault from.
    • idkwid
      Except that a five plays a twelve.
    • talaya7
      Unfortunately, I think Gregg is right....a #2 seed seems unrealistic. A #3 seed is a definite possiblity.

      BTW - What the analysis above is missing - it would be impossible to list the permutations - is it matters a lot what the other top teams are doing.

      For example, it is good for the Terps' seed if dook beats UNC on Saturday. Why? Because the Terps will be seeded relative to dook and there is no way we will get a higher seed than them because of their out of conference schedule/wins.

      The best scenario for the Terps is to beat a highly touted dook in the ACCT finals. dook has a legitimate claim on a #1 and if the Terps have beat them twice in the last two weeks, then the seeders will be thinking highly of the Terps. If dook limps into the tourney and screws up their seed, then the selectors will be thinking it's a down year for the ACC all around and we may only get 4 even if we win the ACCT.

      In addition to how the Terps do, it really matters what happens around the NCAA this week....Hope Gonzaga, UT, Villinova, MSU, Temple, WVU, etc. all suck it up.
    • Mike
      Let's just concentrate on beating UVA. After as far as this team has come it would be a shame not to beat UVA.
    • spmd
      if we win out we'd have a good chance at a 2 seed. our resume would just be stacked with quality wins and we'd be the hottest team in the country. think about it.. we'd be 13-3 in the acc reg season and co-champs in the league, acct champions, with wins over dook, gt, florida state x2, clemson, virginia tech. in the acc tourney we'll likely have to beat georgia tech, a team like clemson or florida state in the 2nd round and then dook again. we'd also have 6 true road wins and 3 more wins on a neutral court in the acct. having said that, i dont think we win out and end up with a 3 or 4 seed.
    • idkwid
      still, we have seven losses, we will not be seeded above a major conference team with five or fewer losses. It not just depends on what we do, but whether teams already ahead of us lose games.
    • Ricksterps
      Ohio state has seven losses and people have them as a 1 seed.

      Just playing a little devil's advocate...
    • idkwid
      In that case, I hope MD is a 4 seed in that bracket
    • nmprisons
      Note that the selection committee no longer officially takes into account how the team performed during the final stretch of the season, as they did when we last won the ACC tournament.
    • spmd
      they still notice dude. they dont have the stat of last 10 games on the resumes of the teams but they definitely notice it.
    • aholla3
      Great article on espn.com about Jermaine Dixon and the influence that Juan and Phil had on him. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=oneil_dana&id=4964648.
    • aholla3
      I do not want to face an under achieving big conference team in the first round like we would if we get a 5/6 seed. We have to move up to a 3/4 and play one of the conference tourney winners from the non-BCS conferences.
    • pc_1
      I think we could get as high as #3, but who and where they play will be as important and quite possibly more so than their actual seed. Looking at Lunardi's bracket for example, I'd be just as worried playing #12 UConn then #4 Mich St than #2 New Mexico & #1 seed Kansas St.
    • idkwid
      I am not even sure that UCONN will get in
    • Gregg
      Honestly, I think there is no way we can get up to a 2 seed no matter what, and I would say the only way we get a 3 is to win the ACC tourney. I'd be thrilled with a 4. The ACC is just not getting the respect it usually gets this season.
    • okaybowler
      Jer, thats only %95!

      Is anyone of the mind that the Terps bowing out in the first or second game is a good thing for a ncaa run? Winning the ACC, then making a deep tourney run is asking for a lot of consecutive wins.

      A 3 seed would be amazing!

      GO TERPS!
    • Rizzo
      Nah...his math is dead-on. 5+25+5+20+5+25+5+10 = 100% Sweet analysis.

      Rizzo (Algebra 2 teacher)
    • idkwid
      you are so correct, the so callled bracket expert fails to realize that a number of 3 and 4, and maybe even a few 1 and 2 seeds, are going to lose a game before selection sunday. So if MD wins out, and say 5 or 6 teams uo the ladder fall down, MD can move up much more than he says. This is DEFINTELY going to happen because the Big 12, Big 10, and Big East have MULTIPLE teams ahead of MD and some of the HAVE TO lose in single elimination tournaments.
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